Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing November 30, 2026. Doug Mason's 6¢ price reflects an extremely illiquid market with zero 24-hour volume despite $4.2M open interest, suggesting the quoted price may not represent true consensus.
Analysis
Doug Mason's 6¢ price reflects an extremely illiquid market with zero 24-hour volume despite $4.2M open interest, suggesting the quoted price may not represent true consensus. The astronomical 2511% implied yield on the yes side combined with 1881% realized volatility and a 4.81 vol ratio indicates severe mispricing or speculative positioning rather than genuine probability assessment. With 228 days to expiration and only a 1¢ spread, this market lacks the depth to execute meaningful trades, making the current price largely decorative.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of The Bachelorette Season 22. The winner is defined as the contestant who receives the final rose from the Bachelorette. Any changes in relationship status after the final rose ceremony including the "After the Final Rose" segment will not be considered. If no rose is given, or the finale ends without a final rose ceremony, this market will resolve to "Other". If the final episode of the bachelorette is not publicly available by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The official resolution source will be the finale episode of The Bachelorette Season 22.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x3848fcbe7e8c243a97a8007b9deac0918189a0d95f61b03d35974730fb619106 yes 100