SimpleFunctions

25 bps increase · Bank of Brazil decision in August

25 bps increase is priced at 4¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 5 inside Bank of Brazil decision in August?.

Price history

4¢ current

+1¢
0¢5¢10¢
May 25, 2026May 28, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the the Bank of Brazil's August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Outcome

25 bps increase

Rank

#5 of 5

Leader

25 bps decrease 58¢

Range

4¢-58¢

Family volume

$4K

Identifier

0x3fafa387...718d

May 28, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 7m ago

Implied probability

4¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 7m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$145

Family rank

#5 of 5

5 outcomes · Bank of Brazil decision in August?

Closes

Aug 4, 2026

Family volume

$4K

Orderbook snapshot

2 / 6¢

Polymarket
4¢ spread
BidSize
2¢20
0¢27K
0¢190
0¢20
0¢100
AskSize
6¢20
6¢32
7¢45
8¢5.0K
8¢6
9¢10
10¢2.0K
10¢1.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the the Bank of Brazil's August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Aug 4, 2026

Identifier

0x3fafa387…718d

SF Signal
SF Index
13051.45
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

13051.4%

IY (No)

22.7%

Adj IY

13051%

CRI

24

RV

2270%

VR

2.21

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

13051.4%
22.7%
Adj IY
13051%
24
RV
2270%
VR
2.21
IAR
1.1/h
Overround
0.1%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.