Bank of Brazil decision in August
Leader sits at 58% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 38%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
25 bps decrease
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
38¢
No Change
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$648
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
67 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Bank of Brazil decision in August
Bank of Brazil decision in August?: 25 bps decrease
0x72c0a7…385e
Bank of Brazil decision in August?: 25 bps increase
0x3fafa3…718d
Bank of Brazil decision in August?: No Change
0xa58e20…81cf
Bank of Brazil decision in August?: 50+ bps increase
0x7b45e6…e777
Bank of Brazil decision in August?: 50+ bps decrease
0xbbf51c…e0b5
Analysis
Markets are currently pricing a 59% likelihood that Brazil's central bank will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points at its August 2026 meeting, with a 35% probability assigned to holding rates steady. This reflects expectations about inflation trends, economic growth, and monetary policy direction in Brazil over the coming months. The pricing suggests traders believe a quarter-point reduction is more likely than no change, though the gap is meaningful rather than overwhelming. The August decision will depend heavily on inflation data releases between now and then, as well as broader economic indicators like employment and GDP growth. Market participants will be watching monthly inflation reports and any forward guidance from central bank officials to refine their expectations. The resolution of this contract will occur when the central bank announces its official policy decision in August.
- ›Market assigns 59% to 25bp cut vs 35% to no change, indicating modest but not dominant conviction in easing
- ›Volume concentration in 'No Change' contract ($257 24h vol) versus 'Decrease' contract ($75 24h vol) suggests disagreement among traders on the baseline scenario
- ›Inflation data releases and employment figures between now and August will be primary drivers of contract repricing
- ›Central bank forward guidance and communications will influence expectations ahead of the August meeting date
- ›Very low probabilities assigned to rate increases (5% and 3% combined) indicate minimal market expectation of tightening
What moved the line
- May 2650+ bps decrease↓6pp15→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 2625 bps decrease↑4pp56→60¢ · Polymarket
- May 27No Change↓3pp35→32¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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