50+ bps increase · Bank of Brazil decision in August
50+ bps increase is priced at 4¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside Bank of Brazil decision in August?.
Price history
4¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the the Bank of Brazil's August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Outcome
50+ bps increase
Rank
#4 of 5
Leader
25 bps decrease 56¢
Range
4¢-56¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
0x7b45e6ee...e777
May 28, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$89
Family rank
#4 of 5
5 outcomes · Bank of Brazil decision in August?
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the the Bank of Brazil's August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
Identifier
0x7b45e6ee…e777
Event family
Bank of Brazil decision in August.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
25 bps decrease 56¢
Current share
16%
25 bps decrease
polymarket · 0x72c0a78cc4255678e80c3b13117a3d6c4134151963cb2e8bfb62478a71e5385e
No Change
polymarket · 0xa58e20682b23995b0fd20964962e6388727bf15fb004206cae740462f7d181cf
50+ bps decrease
polymarket · 0xbbf51c04cf05c3a99e590db75b95fc651e788870d26f983cfd2c42e9b4c9e0b5
50+ bps increase
polymarket · 0x7b45e6eead7cbcb63e242ba0a771ed324c22cf36b96df0c1562be42bd1f6e777
25 bps increase
polymarket · 0x3fafa3875ae13cd82752078cfecb760cca897a352c045d2fdc42784024d2718d
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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