Bitcoin price on May 15, 2026?
This contract is priced at 81¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 80¢ bid, 82¢ ask, 2¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$183K
Best sibling
$81,000 or above 63¢
Ticker
KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T79499.99
Market snapshot
$79,500 or above in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Bitcoin price on May 15, 2026?. The displayed quote is 81¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $9K. In the Bitcoin price on May 15, 2026?: $ family, this outcome ranks #4 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.
Outcome
$79,500 or above
Family rank
#4 of 16
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
81¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until May 15, 2026
24h volume
$9K
Family context
16 outcomes · Bitcoin price on May 15, 2026?: $
Quote range
4¢-95¢
Family leader
$76,500 or above 95¢
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 14m ago
Venue identifier: KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T79499.99. Family volume: $183K.
Price history
81¢ current
+25¢Orderbook snapshot
80 / 82¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 79499.99 at 5 PM EDT on May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 15, 2026
Identifier
KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T79499.99
Event family
Bitcoin price on May 15, 2026?: $.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$183K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
$76,500 or above 95¢
Current share
5%
$79,500 or above
kalshi · KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T79499.99
$81,000 or above
kalshi · KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T80999.99
$78,000 or above
kalshi · KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T77999.99
$82,000 or above
kalshi · KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T81999.99
$81,500 or above
kalshi · KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T81499.99
$80,500 or above
kalshi · KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T80499.99
$79,000 or above
kalshi · KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T78999.99
$85,000 or above
kalshi · KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T84999.99
$80,000 or above
kalshi · KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T79999.99
$83,500 or above
kalshi · KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T83499.99
$85,500 or above
kalshi · KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T85499.99
$83,000 or above
kalshi · KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T82999.99
$82,500 or above
kalshi · KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T82499.99
$87,000 or above
kalshi · KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T86999.99
$84,500 or above
kalshi · KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T84499.99
$76,500 or above
kalshi · KXBTCD-26MAY1517-T76499.99
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 81% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.