Bitcoin price on Apr 21, 2026
Leader sits at 91% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$55,000 or above
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
$56,000 or above
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$392K
liquid
Closes
Jun 12, 2026
5 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $61,000 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T60999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $62,000 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T61999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $61,500 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T61499.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $66,000 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T65999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $56,500 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T56499.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $55,000 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T54999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $71,000 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T70999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $62,500 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T62499.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $63,000 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T62999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $60,000 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T59999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $64,500 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T64499.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $60,500 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T60499.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $63,500 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T63499.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $56,000 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T55999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $64,000 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T63999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $59,000 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T58999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $71,500 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T71499.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $72,000 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T71999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $65,000 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T64999.99
Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026?: $65,500 or above
KXBTCD-26JUN1217-T65499.99
What moved the line
- Jun 6$55,000 or above↑12pp71→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7$71,500 or above↑12pp4→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6$56,000 or above↑11pp71→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7$60,500 or above↑8pp53→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7$62,000 or above↑7pp40→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.