SimpleFunctions

Canada unemployment below 6.5% before 2027

Below 6.5% is priced at 39¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 39¢ bid, 40¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

39¢ current

+14¢
30¢40¢
May 5, 2026May 6, 2026

Contract brief

If the Canada unemployment rate is below 6.5% in any monthly Labour Force Survey release published after Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Below 6.5%

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXUE-CAN27BEL-6.5

May 28, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 23m ago

Implied probability

39¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 23m ago

Bid

39¢

Ask

40¢

Spread

Reported volume

$6K

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

39 / 40¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
39¢58
34¢500
32¢112
22¢32
21¢113
AskSize
40¢800
47¢160
54¢91
55¢76
56¢149

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the Canada unemployment rate is below 6.5% in any monthly Labour Force Survey release published after Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXUE-CAN27BEL-6.5

SF Signal
SF Index
131.02
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXUE-CAN27BEL.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$0

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Below 6.5% 39¢

Current share

Browse this series

Country Unemployment Rate Forecast Markets
Per-series collection — every live contract in the KXUE series on Kalshi, sorted by 24h volume.

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.568

Observability

high

Event type

data_release

Full indicator table

262.0%
107.1%
Adj IY
131%
2

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.