SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Country Unemployment Rate Forecast Markets — 58 contracts, SF signal on every row.

58 live Kalshi contracts (64 audited). Median implied probability sits at 42%. 13 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXUE-CAN26MAY-6.5 +88c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXUE.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXUE
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXUE
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXUE",
    "label": "Country Unemployment Rate Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 58,
    "volume24hSum": 1559.77,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 28 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$1.6K>+999%
min $28max $3.5K
Breadth100%0.0pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 08:45 UTC
May 22past 6d · UTCMay 28 · 08:23

Live contracts

58

Median IY

42¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$1.6K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+88¢

KXUE-CAN26MAY-6.5

Country Unemployment Rate Forecast Markets — liquidity topography (top 14 of 58 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 2783.5 → 100000.0%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d100000.051391.72783.5

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Country Unemployment Rate Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 58

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Brazil unemployment rate in Apr 2026?: Above 5.9%43¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 240%Resid —$654
Mexico unemployment rate in Apr 2026?: Above 2.6%62¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 187%Resid —$256
Germany unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 6.2%93¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$225
Mexico unemployment rate in Apr 2026?: Above 2.7%38¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 329%Resid —$155
Brazil unemployment rate in Apr 2026?: Above 5.8%69¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$155
Mexico unemployment rate in Apr 2026?: Above 3.0%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$47
Mexico unemployment rate in Apr 2026?: Above 2.8%21¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$35
Germany unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 6.3%68¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$14
Mexico unemployment rate in Apr 2026?: Above 2.3%96¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$8
Mexico unemployment rate in Apr 2026?: Above 2.5%93¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$7
Canada unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 7.0%8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
Brazil unemployment rate in Apr 2026?: Above 6.2%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
Brazil unemployment rate in Apr 2026?: Above 6.1%8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
Australia unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 4.5%38¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 220%Resid —$1
China unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 5.0%78¢
IY 549%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
China unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 5.1%56¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
China unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 5.5%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Germany unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 6.0%92¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Germany unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 5.9%95¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
China unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 5.2%32¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
58 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Country Unemployment Rate Forecast Markets

From market_changes
20h agoKalshi
Canada unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 6.5%
92¢4→92 (+88)
open →
20h agoKalshi
Canada unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 6.6%
82¢8→82 (+74)
open →
20h agoKalshi
Canada unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 6.7%
59¢4→59 (+55)
open →
20h agoKalshi
Canada unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 6.8%
38¢2→38 (+36)
open →
20h agoKalshi
Canada unemployment rate in May 2026?: Above 6.9%
20¢2→20 (+18)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Brazil unemployment rate in Apr 2026?: Above 5.6%
90¢82→90 (+8)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Brazil unemployment rate in Apr 2026?: Above 5.6%
82¢89→82 (-7)
open →
8h agoKalshi
Brazil unemployment rate in Apr 2026?: Above 5.8%
67¢73→67 (-6)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 28 May 2026 08:08:23 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXUE →

Category view

All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →