SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Country Unemployment Rate Forecast Markets — 49 contracts, SF signal on every row.

49 live Kalshi contracts (64 audited). Median implied probability sits at 36%. 7 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXUE-MEX26JUNE-2.7 -37c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXUE.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXUE
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXUE
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXUE",
    "label": "Country Unemployment Rate Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 49,
    "volume24hSum": 65.98,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 12 Jul 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$66-96%
min $0max $2.2K
Breadth0%+75.0pp
min -100%max 43%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 03:30 UTC
Jul 5past 7d · UTCJul 11 · 22:23

Live contracts

49

Median IY

36¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$66

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-37¢

KXUE-MEX26JUNE-2.7

Country Unemployment Rate Forecast Markets — liquidity topography (top 4 of 49 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 4149.9 → 100000.0%

$10$1001d7d30d100000.052075.04149.9

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Country Unemployment Rate Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 49

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

China unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 4.9%19¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$50
Canada unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 6.6%25¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$10
China unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 5.1%28¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$4
China unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 5.2%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$2
China unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 5.0%34¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 275%Resid —$0
Australia unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 4.5%18¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 4.8%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 4.0%94¢
IY 593%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 4.4%45¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 279%Resid —$0
Australia unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 4.3%73¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Australia unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 4.2%89¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol 53%Resid —$0
Australia unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 4.1%94¢
IY 593%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Mexico unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 2.5%91¢
IY 292%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Mexico unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 2.4%74¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 111%Resid —$0
Mexico unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 2.9%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Mexico unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 2.8%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Mexico unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 2.7%10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Mexico unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 2.6%86¢
IY 481%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Russia unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 2.2%18¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Russia unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 2.0%79¢
IY 553%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
49 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Country Unemployment Rate Forecast Markets

From market_changes
13h agoKalshi
Mexico unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 2.7%
4¢41→4 (-37)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Canada unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 6.6%
16¢4→16 (+12)
open →
17h agoKalshi
China unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 4.9%
13¢7→13 (+6)
open →
1d agoKalshi
Canada unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 6.7%
21¢16→21 (+5)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Australia unemployment rate in June 2026?: Above 4.8%
6¢1→6 (+5)
open →
13h agoKalshi
Canada unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 6.6%
20¢25→20 (-5)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Canada unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 6.7%
16¢21→16 (-5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 12 Jul 2026 03:09:18 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXUE →

Category view

All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →