SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Country Unemployment Rate Forecast Markets — 42 contracts, SF signal on every row.

42 live Kalshi contracts (64 audited). Median implied probability sits at 74%. 27 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXUE-MEX26JUL-2.7 -41c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXUE.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXUE
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXUE
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXUE",
    "label": "Country Unemployment Rate Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 42,
    "volume24hSum": 196.35,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 22 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
min 81max ≥100
Vol Flow$196-70%
min $72max $3.2K
Breadth0%+3.0pp
min -50%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 14:45 UTC
Aug 15past 7d · UTCAug 22 · 14:23

Live contracts

42

Median IY

74¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$196

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-41¢

KXUE-MEX26JUL-2.7

Country Unemployment Rate Forecast Markets — liquidity topography (top 7 of 42 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 497.2 → 62743.1%

$10$1001d7d30d62743.131620.2497.2

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Country Unemployment Rate Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 42

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Australia unemployment rate in August 2026?: Above 4.6%16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$65
China unemployment rate in August 2026?: Above 5.2%55¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$59
Canada unemployment rate in August 2026?: Above 6.4%67¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 179%Resid —$30
China unemployment rate in August 2026?: Above 5.1%75¢
IY 497%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$26
China unemployment rate in August 2026?: Above 5.3%26¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$6
Russia unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 2.3%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$5
Brazil unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 5.4%37¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$5
South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 2026?: Above 33.5%12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Germany unemployment rate in August 2026?: Above 6.2%91¢
IY 632%Cliff 10Edge —RVol 63%Resid —$0
Germany unemployment rate in August 2026?: Above 6.3%74¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 376%Resid —$0
Germany unemployment rate in August 2026?: Above 6.4%39¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 354%Resid —$0
Germany unemployment rate in August 2026?: Above 6.5%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Russia unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 1.9%96¢
IY 138%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Russia unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 2.0%87¢
IY 493%Cliff 7Edge —RVol 66%Resid —$0
Russia unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 2.1%73¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 78%Resid —$0
Russia unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 2.2%39¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 148%Resid —$0
South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 2026?: Above 31.0%96¢
IY 19%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 2026?: Above 31.5%87¢
IY 68%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 2026?: Above 32.0%78¢
IY 129%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 2026?: Above 32.5%49¢
IY 476%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
42 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Country Unemployment Rate Forecast Markets

From market_changes
23h agoKalshi
Mexico unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 2.7%
47¢88→47 (-41)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Mexico unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 2.7%
87¢47→87 (+40)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Mexico unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 2.8%
68¢34→68 (+34)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Mexico unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 2.8%
34¢62→34 (-28)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Mexico unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 2.9%
14¢41→14 (-27)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Mexico unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 2.9%
41¢14→41 (+27)
open →
6h agoKalshi
Brazil unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 5.4%
36¢12→36 (+24)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Mexico unemployment rate in July 2026?: Above 2.6%
70¢90→70 (-20)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 22 Aug 2026 14:38:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXUE →

Category view

All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →