Chelsea vs Nottingham Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Chelsea vs Nottingham Winner?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing May 18, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero volume and open interest despite a 29-day window to the May 18 close, suggesting minimal trader interest in this Chelsea-Nottingham tie outcome.
Analysis
This market exhibits severe illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero volume and open interest despite a 29-day window to the May 18 close, suggesting minimal trader interest in this Chelsea-Nottingham tie outcome. The 0¢ price conflicts sharply with the astronomical 5008.6% implied yield on Yes, indicating the market is essentially broken rather than reflecting genuine probability—a tie in a single EPL match typically carries 20-30% probability, not near-zero. The extreme realized volatility of 1804% and cliff risk index of 4 combined with the recent 5¢ to 20¢ price movement signal this is a dysfunctional micro-market with unreliable pricing rather than a tradeable opportunity.
Resolution rules
If Tie wins the Chelsea vs Nottingham professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEPLGAME-26MAY04CFCNFO-TIE yes 100