Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
This contract is priced at 8¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 8¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 0¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
3
Family volume
$669K
Best sibling
June 30, 2026 25¢
Ticker
0x6d4e3af4…d2b6
Market snapshot
May 31, 2026 in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?. The displayed quote is 8¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $279. In the Claude 5 released by…? family, this outcome ranks #3 of 3 by current quote across 3 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 7:23 AM UTC.
Outcome
May 31, 2026
Family rank
#3 of 3
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
8¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until May 31, 2026
24h volume
$279
Family context
3 outcomes · Claude 5 released by…?
Quote range
8¢-80¢
Family leader
September 30, 2026 80¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 7:23 AM UTC · 11m ago
Venue identifier: 0x6d4e3af4996807a673cb2678a7b5960bfd6dfa5c43b8556e23cdf094fb55d2b6. Family volume: $669K.
Price history
8¢ current
−62¢Orderbook snapshot
8 / 8¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x6d4e3af4…d2b6
Event family
Claude 5 released by….
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$669K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
September 30, 2026 80¢
Current share
61%
May 31, 2026
polymarket · 0x6d4e3af4996807a673cb2678a7b5960bfd6dfa5c43b8556e23cdf094fb55d2b6
June 30, 2026
polymarket · 0x562d8e6be61af9176d3ed95c775b56202e5e668d7dd703be7c875926f56efdbd
September 30, 2026
polymarket · 0x8ccd3fe9eccb2448cc4ec2873cd472b600107a35a3e6835e5ffe117c8267329f
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.455
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
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