Winner-take-all answer·5 source contracts·Kalshi 5·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 189d·↓3pp · 21h

When will Claude 5 be released?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 15% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

15%

Before Jan 1, 2027

0¢runner-up 14¢leader 15¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

14¢

Before Dec 1, 2026

Spread

1pp

contested

24h volume

$6K

modest

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

189 days

Venue

Kalshi

5 bound

Open top contract Read answer

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 202715¢$271 Will Anthropic release Mythos before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 202614¢$247 Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 20267¢$5K Will Anthropic release Mythos before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 20265¢$0

30-day trend

Before Jan 1, 202718¢Before Dec 1, 202614¢Before Nov 1, 202611¢

Top 3 candidates by current price · 30d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will Anthropic release Mythos before

5 contracts$6K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026

KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV01

7¢±0$5KK→

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027

KXCLAUDE-MYTH-27JAN01

15¢+1pp$271K→

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026

KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26DEC01

14¢+2pp$247K→

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026

KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26OCT01

5¢−1pp$0K→

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026

KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26SEP01

3¢±0$0K→

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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