When will Claude 5 be released?
Leader sits at 17% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Before Dec 1, 2026
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
131 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Anthropic release Mythos before
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV01
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26DEC01
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-27JAN01
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26OCT01
What moved the line
- Aug 22Before Dec 1, 2026↑4pp13→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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