Claude Mythos released by…
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 7 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
36%
7 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
7 contracts
Closes
Apr 30, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “GPT-6 released by…” vs “Claude 5 released by…”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
GPT-6 released by…
Cluster 2
Claude 5 released by…
Claude 5 released by…?: June 30, 2026
0x562d8e…fdbd
Claude 5 released by…?: May 31, 2026
0x6d4e3a…d2b6
Cluster 3
Kimi K3 released by…
Kimi K3 released by…?: June 30
0xd35798…ff5f
Kimi K3 released by…?: May 31
0x049136…adfe
Analysis
This 35% probability reflects market expectations that Claude will release a new major model version by the end of June 2026. The aggregate assessment combines multiple release-window contracts, with the June 30 deadline attracting higher trading volume than the earlier May 31 target, suggesting moderate confidence in a near-term release but uncertainty about exact timing. Two main forces shape this level: Anthropic's historical release cadence and public roadmap statements push expectations upward, while the specificity of date-based contracts and the concentration of probability mass on June 30 rather than May 31 suggests traders are pricing in typical delays. The primary resolution event will be Anthropic's official announcement of Claude 5 or subsequent version release, which would immediately clarify whether this timeline materializes.
- ›Volume concentration: June 30 Claude contract trades at 28¢ with $1,246 daily volume versus May 31 at 7¢ with $3,669 volume, indicating traders view June as more probable despite higher May trading activity
- ›Competing model timelines: Kimi K3 contracts show 42¢ probability for June 30 release, suggesting market expects multiple AI labs releasing major models in similar windows
- ›Contract structure: Existence of seven distinct contracts across different models and dates indicates granular uncertainty rather than consensus on any single timeline
- ›Historical release patterns: Anthropic's previous major release intervals provide empirical reference for expected cadence
- ›Public statements: Any recent Anthropic communications about release schedules or development progress would directly inform trader positioning
What moved the line
- May 7June 30↓18pp41→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 6December 31, 2026↑8pp85→93¢ · Polymarket
- May 8September 30, 2026↑4pp57→61¢ · Polymarket
- May 7December 31, 2026↓3pp93→90¢ · Polymarket
- May 2June 30↓3pp45→42¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in technology
- What will Powell say during April Press Conference?: AI / Artificial Intelligencelast 14% · 4d
- What will Bernie Sanders say during The Existential Threat of AIyeslast 79% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In technology
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 d ago.