Concrete FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome

When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Prediction Market Valuation Theory: A Capstone

The funnel, the indicator stack, the three-source axis, and null-as-signal synthesized into one theory of how to value a binary contract. The market is valuable because it is the only forum where reality, endogenous, and opinion data collide in a single price.

Why "Thesis Confidence" Is Not the Same as Market Price

A 70% subjective conviction is not the same number as a 70-cent price. The market price aggregates every active trader weighted by capital. The gap is only edge under specific conditions.

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.