Concrete FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 92% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 71%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$50M
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
71¢
$100M
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Concrete FDV above ___ one day after launch
Concrete FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M
0xd15bc5…bba2
Concrete FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B
0xbcd527…ec3a
Concrete FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M
0xe566ca…c48a
Concrete FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0xca4be1…71be
Concrete FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0x10539c…5141
Concrete FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0xead69b…d576
Concrete FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0xb83e7f…d9ef
Analysis
This contract predicts whether a cryptocurrency or blockchain project will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) exceeding $50 million within one day of its public launch. The 94% probability reflects strong market confidence in this outcome occurring. The assessment is driven by two main factors: historical precedent showing that most token launches achieve at least $50M FDV if they generate meaningful trading volume, and the implied competitiveness of reaching this threshold—a relatively modest valuation for projects attracting enough attention to launch on major platforms. The primary resolution point is the actual launch date and the immediate 24-hour trading data following it, which will determine whether the $50M FDV threshold is crossed. Downside scenarios involve unexpected technical issues, reduced market demand at launch, or macroeconomic conditions suppressing initial valuations. The contract's high probability aligns with lower barriers to entry at the $50M level compared to higher thresholds, where confidence drops notably.
- ›Historical launch data shows most projects achieving sufficient trading activity reach $50M+ FDV within the first day
- ›The $50M threshold is substantially lower than competing outcomes ($500M–$1B), making it easier to achieve
- ›Current market conditions and crypto sector health at launch time will directly impact initial valuations and trading volume
- ›The specific project's marketing, community size, and positioning relative to competitors affect day-one liquidity and price discovery
- ›Unexpected technical failures, exchange listing delays, or regulatory blockers could prevent the launch from occurring as scheduled
What moved the line
- May 2$50M↑7pp86→93¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$500M↓6pp57→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$300M↑4pp51→55¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$500M↑4pp50→54¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$100M↑3pp67→70¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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