SimpleFunctions
KalshiMay 12, 20261 days left

CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026?

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 11 May 2026Methodology

This contract is priced at 30¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 29¢ bid, 30¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

30¢
$23K volume
$10K liquidity
201% of event volume

Event outcomes

13

Family volume

$12K

Best sibling

Exactly 0.7% 27¢

Ticker

KXECONSTATCPI-26APR-T0.5

Market snapshot

Exactly 0.5% in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026?. The displayed quote is 30¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $2K. In the CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026?: Exactly family, this outcome ranks #2 of 13 by current quote across 13 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 7:23 PM UTC.

Outcome

Exactly 0.5%

Family rank

#2 of 13

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

30¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until May 12, 2026

24h volume

$2K

Family context

13 outcomes · CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026?: Exactly

Quote range

1¢-33¢

Family leader

Exactly 0.6% 33¢

Last updated

May 11, 2026, 7:23 PM UTC · 5m ago

Venue identifier: KXECONSTATCPI-26APR-T0.5. Family volume: $12K.

Price history

30¢ current

+9¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 12, 2026May 11, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

29 / 30¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
29¢2.3K
28¢696
27¢500
26¢500
25¢20
AskSize
30¢303
31¢2.5K
32¢100
33¢100
45¢16

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.5% in Apr 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

May 12, 2026

Identifier

KXECONSTATCPI-26APR-T0.5

SF Signal
SF Index
48275.00
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

CRI

2

Overround

0.2%

LAS

0.03

Regime

neutral

Score

0.568

Observability

high

Event type

data_release

Full indicator table

2
Overround
0.2%
LAS
0.03

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.