CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
10 contracts
Closes
Jan 13, 2027
111 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
CPI month-over-month
CPI month-over-month in Nov 2026?: Exactly 0.2%
KXECONSTATCPI-26NOV-T0.2
CPI month-over-month in Oct 2026?: Exactly 0.6%
KXECONSTATCPI-26OCT-T0.6
CPI month-over-month in Oct 2026?: Exactly 0.5%
KXECONSTATCPI-26OCT-T0.5
CPI month-over-month in Oct 2026?: Exactly 0.4%
KXECONSTATCPI-26OCT-T0.4
CPI month-over-month in Oct 2026?: Exactly 0.3%
KXECONSTATCPI-26OCT-T0.3
CPI month-over-month in Oct 2026?: Exactly 0.2%
KXECONSTATCPI-26OCT-T0.2
CPI month-over-month in Nov 2026?: Exactly 0.6%
KXECONSTATCPI-26NOV-T0.6
CPI month-over-month in Nov 2026?: Exactly 0.4%
KXECONSTATCPI-26NOV-T0.4
CPI month-over-month in Nov 2026?: Exactly 0.3%
KXECONSTATCPI-26NOV-T0.3
Cluster 2
Will CPI month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly -0.2%
Will CPI month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly -0.2%?: Exactly -0.2%
KXECONSTATCPI-27JAN13-E-0.2
Analysis
This market estimates the probability that consumer prices will increase by exactly 0.2% month-over-month in April 2026. The current 56% probability for this outcome reflects expectations about inflation momentum through mid-2026. The prediction is driven by recent CPI trends and Federal Reserve policy trajectory; movements would depend on whether inflation accelerates above or decelerates below the 0.2% baseline. The April 2026 CPI release, scheduled for May 2026, will directly resolve this contract. Until then, actual inflation readings for preceding months and Fed rate decisions will influence expectations about whether April's monthly print matches this specific threshold.
- ›Historical CPI month-over-month readings from late 2025 through March 2026 establish the baseline trend trajectory
- ›Federal Reserve interest rate policy and forward guidance between now and April 2026 affects inflation expectations and nominal price pressures
- ›Energy and commodity price movements, which significantly influence monthly CPI swings, remain volatile and difficult to forecast
- ›The exact 0.2% threshold is relatively precise; outcomes of 0.1% or 0.3% would resolve the contract to zero despite mathematical proximity
- ›Labor market tightness and wage growth through Q1 2026 will influence service-sector inflation components reflected in April CPI data
What moved the line
- Sep 17Exactly 0.2%↓88pp97→9¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Exactly 0.4%↓83pp96→13¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Exactly 0.2%↓47pp53→6¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Exactly 0.2%↑44pp9→53¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23Exactly 0.4%↑27pp14→41¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in economy
- What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 43% · 0d
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 55% · 0d
- Will Jerome Powell be removed as Fed Chair?last 31% · 1d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 33% · 1d
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 57% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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