CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

A 20% probability indicates traders expect April 2026's month-over-month CPI increase to fall at or below 0.5%, with a much lower chance of exceeding 0.6%. This reflects recent inflation trends and base effects. The market shows higher confidence in year-over-year inflation staying near 3.8% and remaining above 3.6%, but minimal expectation of reaching 4.0%. Month-over-month movements depend on energy prices, seasonal adjustments, and wage pressures during this period. The April 2026 CPI report release will provide the definitive data point, likely arriving in early May 2026, immediately resolving all related contracts.

• ›Year-over-year inflation traders price at 3.8%, suggesting modest month-over-month growth necessary to maintain that rate given April 2025 base effects
• ›Probability of MoM exceeding 0.6% prices at only 21¢, indicating strong consensus against larger monthly moves
• ›52¢ probability for exceeding 0.5% MoM suggests uncertainty clusters around the 0.4-0.6% range rather than decisively lower or higher
• ›Only 3¢ probability for YoY above 4.0% reflects trader conviction that year-end inflation remains firmly below that threshold
• ›Trading volume concentrates on 0.5-0.6% thresholds ($2.8-2.9K daily), indicating this is the primary range of disagreement

What moved the line

• Jun 22Exactly 0.0%↑6pp8→14¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Exactly 0.0%↓5pp12→7¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Exactly -0.1%↓5pp28→23¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 20Exactly -0.2%↓4pp32→28¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 21Exactly -0.1%↓4pp34→30¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in economy

• US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0%last 62% · 1d
• Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 1d
• South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+last 62% · 1d
• What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 34% · 1d
• Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 49% · 1d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds