SimpleFunctions
PolymarketAug 11, 202694 days left

Will Jillian Gilchrest be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?

This contract is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 2¢ spread.

Implied probability

3¢
$2K volume
$2K liquidity
23% of event volume

Event outcomes

5

Family volume

$8K

Best sibling

Luke Bronin 47¢

Ticker

0x208c15b7…d375

Market snapshot

Jillian Gilchrest in market context.

This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Jillian Gilchrest be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?. The displayed quote is 3¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $2K. In the CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner family, this outcome ranks #4 of 5 by current quote across 5 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 2:53 AM UTC.

Outcome

Jillian Gilchrest

Family rank

#4 of 5

Venue

Polymarket

Current quote

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Aug 11, 2026

Reported volume

$2K

Family context

5 outcomes · CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Quote range

2¢-47¢

Family leader

Luke Bronin 47¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 2:53 AM UTC · 11m ago

Venue identifier: 0x208c15b7465c469f7a50bd9a9525192408406c088f5bafb1ff18abca8cb5d375. Family volume: $8K.

Price history

3¢ current

1¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 19, 2026May 7, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

2 / 4¢

Polymarket
2¢ spread
BidSize
100¢70
100¢100
2¢103
2¢25
2¢10
0¢6.8K
0¢200
0¢50
AskSize
4¢50
5¢103
5¢70
47¢5
47¢5
47¢9
47¢180
57¢212

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Aug 11, 2026

Identifier

0x208c15b7…d375

Event family

CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$8K

Outcomes

5

Highest price

Luke Bronin 47¢

Current share

23%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

12571.0%

IY (No)

12.0%

Adj IY

6286%

CRI

32

Overround

-0.1%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

12571.0%
12.0%
Adj IY
6286%
32
Overround
-0.1%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogpolitics

US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress

A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Conceptmethodology

Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome

When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Conceptmethodology

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index