CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

30-day trend

Analysis

This 43% probability reflects market expectations for a Democratic primary winner across multiple contests, aggregated from 18 different contracts on Polymarket. The contracts span congressional districts and state-level races, with varying levels of market activity. The probability would likely increase if frontrunner candidates gain fundraising advantages, endorsements from established party figures, or demonstrate polling leads in head-to-head matchups. Conversely, it would decrease if challengers gain ground through grassroots organizing or if unexpected candidates enter races. The primary election dates vary by state and district, ranging from late spring through mid-summer 2026, meaning uncertainty will gradually resolve over the coming months as voting occurs and results are tabulated.

• ›Current market pricing shows significant variation across individual races, from 16¢ to 80¢, indicating substantial disagreement about likely winners even among the subset of tracked contracts
• ›Trading volume across these contracts ranges from $625-$816 in 24-hour volume, suggesting moderate but not exceptionally deep liquidity in any single race
• ›Multiple concurrent races at different electoral levels (congressional districts, state offices) are weighted together in this aggregate, creating exposure to varied political dynamics and regional factors
• ›No single contract dominates the aggregate, meaning results depend on outcomes across numerous independent elections rather than a single high-stakes race
• ›The May-June 2026 timeframe means many primaries have not yet occurred, leaving substantial time for candidate positioning, field changes, and shifts in voter preference

What moved the line

• May 7Jillian Gilchrest↓21pp24→3¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in election 2026

• Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
• Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
• Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
• Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
• What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds