Will either Tate brother be arrested by April 30?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3269% implied yield on the Yes side despite $186.5k open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 13¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The 9¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the price level, and the 533% realized volatility combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 7 indicates this market experiences sharp, unpredictable moves—likely driven by sparse information arrivals (0.5/hour) rather than continuous trading. With the resolution date (April 30) falling 61 days before market close (June 30), there's a structural timing issue that may be causing pricing distortions, and the stale 7-day price action (flat at 12¢) suggests illiquidity is preventing price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Andrew Tate or Tristan Tate is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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