Will either Tate brother be arrested by June 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will either Tate brother be arrested by June 30?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. The market has experienced extreme volatility, with realized volatility of 4,128% and a vol ratio of 9.91, suggesting highly unstable pricing despite the relatively long 75-day timeframe.
Analysis
The market has experienced extreme volatility, with realized volatility of 4,128% and a vol ratio of 9.91, suggesting highly unstable pricing despite the relatively long 75-day timeframe. The 31¢ price represents a sharp pullback from 42¢ seven days ago, though the 37¢ spread indicates thin liquidity with only $25.75 in 24-hour volume against $1.06M open interest. The asymmetric implied yields (675% for Yes vs. 354% for No) and cliff risk index of 1 suggest market participants are pricing in a discrete event risk, possibly related to ongoing legal proceedings, though the neutral regime score indicates no clear directional consensus.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Andrew Tate or Tristan Tate is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x5005adaac0211b84ff06ec99ab507f9b79fcb5305b7794ad1d512cf40364eaa6 yes 100