Will either Tate brother be arrested by March 31?

This market has collapsed from 24¢ to 2¢ over seven days, suggesting a major information event—likely related to the resolution criteria's emphasis on detention pending judicial review. The 15,796% implied yield on "Yes" reflects extreme mispricing given the brothers' ongoing legal proceedings, though the zero 24-hour volume and $1.6M open interest indicate liquidity has evaporated alongside the price crash. With 75 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, the market appears to be pricing in near-certainty of no arrest by March 31, but the truncated resolution text hints at ambiguity around what "detention" qualifies—a potential source of dispute that could explain the dramatic repricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Andrew Tate or Tristan Tate is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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