What is the current probability for "Will El Gouna SC win on 2026-04-29?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 46¢ (46% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on April 29, 2026. 3 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will El Gouna SC win on 2026-04-29?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 14164.6% and 10278.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will El Gouna SC win on 2026-04-29?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will El Gouna SC win on 2026-04-29?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Will El Gouna SC win on 2026-04-29?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Polymarket, closing April 29, 2026.

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46¢

Bid/Ask 41/51¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $741.382·Closes Apr 29, 2026·3d remaining

0xcee7c538f0c2dac84b2b9011eb0c895f4f3cc2b458b85d964a11bbe768da0d27

7-day price42 snapshots · 1 regime

47¢46¢ current

Apr 2431¢Apr 25

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 29, 2026 If El Gouna SC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 14164.6%

IY (No) 10278.5%

Adj IY 14165%

CRI 1

RV 959%

VR 0.69

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	14164.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	10278.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	14165%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	959%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.69	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 11:32:13 PM

Indicators computed 4/25/2026, 11:23:51 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xcee7c538f0c2dac84b2b9011eb0c895f4f3cc2b458b85d964a11bbe768da0d27 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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