SimpleFunctions

1280-1319 · Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026

1280-1319 is priced at 0¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 0¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026?.

Open on PolymarketView JSONEnter terminal

Price history

0¢ current

−5¢
0¢25¢50¢
Apr 26, 2026May 7, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of May 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Outcome

1280-1319

Rank

#3 of 16

Leader

800-839 8¢

Range

0¢-8¢

Family volume

$1.7M

Identifier

0x1802354c...734c

May 26, 2026, 11:51 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

0¢
Bid/ask midpoint
May 26, 2026, 11:51 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

0¢

Ask

0¢

Spread

0¢

Reported volume

$91K

Family rank

#3 of 16

16 outcomes · Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026?

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Family volume

$1.7M

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 0¢

Polymarket
0¢ spread
BidSize
AskSize
0¢791
0¢899
0¢50
0¢19K
2¢30
100¢100
100¢400
100¢407

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of May 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Identifier

0x1802354c…734c

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$1.7M

Outcomes

16

Highest price

800-839 8¢

Current share

5%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

800-839

polymarket · 0x11a78aebb5a769ff8ac6b2cb61b4d5138c4de9aa6e398197ab9d1d37a3886db9

8¢
$80K$5K0.1

780-799

polymarket · 0x204594f80ea51049f285bf770c43864b1f966d12c308cefa4d26c2a8f9f64196

1¢
$81K$3K—

2000+

polymarket · 0x4d7130ae6dd22cc177904f0611688f398e5db89f988b5f3b897c8fc2ab0985e7

0¢
$322K$0—

1400-1439

polymarket · 0x964d895e4f821a1b28cb4037c916deed74df33f8de63dfa9fb957b0b900efe3a

0¢
$117K$477—

1320-1359

polymarket · 0x43f22f2765ed31f7f53bc29e916640f47fe1b9396a91a5ec5b77e40b39889321

0¢
$116K$0—

1520-1559

polymarket · 0xa455ffadd4eff9e49f7a13e20ba81323ebc6d85709a5de9293441731973dae9c

0¢
$116K$0—

1240-1279

polymarket · 0x77132e624d83299c8d2b3f00dc524cb5e2d740a46488338db0a1b27bc8172ca7

0¢
$102K$8K—

1280-1319

polymarket · 0x1802354c139a09231f1c9aea759d5a52b8476af3bce72c29bacd8b69e238734c

0¢
$91K$0—

1200-1239

polymarket · 0xfba701c86ac18bd4146c803f304290c881d1e89ff69307d359538ee6d519e611

0¢
$90K$4K—

1160-1199

polymarket · 0x2089a75814ea1885faaa9ac9687627035967f780e362dcddfb5438fb842040e4

0¢
$87K$6K—

1360-1399

polymarket · 0x1e5933ab0cdbc89baeb135ea71444d8503279d3cf052d563fac1e3aee6372b76

0¢
$87K$0—

1920-1999

polymarket · 0x5bf0baa07047a4775f87ee54fb79fa03c4b1235254a5350adb288c18a1f47401

0¢
$78K$0—

720-739

polymarket · 0xe4320a403538a2781ec2115bc866d9d2522075c80be111d822fed779121901c7

0¢
$78K$8K—

1480-1519

polymarket · 0xc7ae6dcfbe1eaadfa335e936ecf9dae26904c65e0e45b43e92a5c4b0367546db

0¢
$78K$0—

740-759

polymarket · 0x187cacb4f8c5fa9431b8abafe271db19a3f064fe6fa32e3b0d894170b09d1c2d

0¢
$76K$13K—

1440-1479

polymarket · 0x8b8802585a8bb89846db569d51369d5cc2896e32fc6b7fce4237b7b2971d219a

0¢
$73K$20—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

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SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

Prediction Market Index

Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.

Market Screener

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Event Probability API

Read 0% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.

Realtime Data API

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World State API

Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.

Hedging Workflows

Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.