What is the current probability for "Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 56¢ (56% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 27, 2026. 33 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 877.5% and 1421.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Polymarket, closing May 27, 2026.

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56¢

Bid/Ask 56/57¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $691.028·OI $15,637.08·Closes May 27, 2026·33d remaining

0xff0aaaffdac37c3425e1fa5a901f946bd386892091278d1e8bc75450d65a46ac

7-day price164 snapshots · 57 regime

62¢56¢ current

Apr 810¢Apr 24

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 88¢(Δ -32¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.82IY 161.8%Close-time delta 46h

Resolution rules

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will finish in 2nd place in the 2025–26 English Premier League. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes 2nd in the final standings of the 2025–26 English Premier League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish 2nd in the 2025-26 EPL season (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 English Premier League season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Premier League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 877.5%

IY (No) 1421.4%

Adj IY 1371%

CRI 1

RV 306%

VR 1.00

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	877.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1421.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1371%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	306%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.00	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

taker

Score

0.636

Computed

4/24/2026, 7:45:59 AM

Observability directEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/24/2026, 7:38:16 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xff0aaaffdac37c3425e1fa5a901f946bd386892091278d1e8bc75450d65a46ac yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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