Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

Bulgaria's Eurovision advancement is priced at a confident 85¢ with minimal recent movement (84¢ to 85¢ over 7 days), but the market shows severe liquidity constraints with only $5 in 24-hour volume against $6.5M open interest, creating a dangerously wide valuation gap. The extreme implied yield on "No" (7668%) signals that short positions are severely underwater, suggesting the market may be mispriced or illiquid rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about Bulgaria's qualification prospects. With 27 days to resolution and a 3¢ spread, this appears to be a thin, potentially stale market where the high confidence level should be interpreted cautiously given the negligible trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Indicators

Regime

Trade