Will Jim Baird be the Republican nominee for IN-04?

Jim Baird is priced at an extremely high 92¢ with just 16 days until the May 5, 2026 primary, suggesting near-certainty of his Republican nomination for IN-04, though the 3¢ spread indicates some residual uncertainty. The market has surged dramatically from 73¢ seven days ago, a 26-point move that aligns with the extraordinarily high realized volatility of 1314%, yet volume remains thin at just $1.053 in 24-hour trading against $3.78M open interest. The asymmetric implied yields—230% for Yes versus 23,534% for No—reflect the extreme probability skew, making any contrarian bet on an alternative nominee a high-risk, high-reward proposition with minimal liquidity to execute meaningful positions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Indicators

Regime

Trade