Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?
This contract is priced at 22¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 21¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$90.1M
Best sibling
Austria 0¢
Ticker
0x7382a5e4…6872
Market snapshot
Greece in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?. The displayed quote is 22¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $350K. In the Eurovision Winner 2026 family, this outcome ranks #1 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.
Outcome
Greece
Family rank
#1 of 16
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
22¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until May 16, 2026
24h volume
$350K
Family context
16 outcomes · Eurovision Winner 2026
Quote range
0¢-21¢
Family leader
Greece 21¢
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 11m ago
Venue identifier: 0x7382a5e41b0fec7ba5fd4d62191fc1cf4504d3768970c46d4c9185615c416872. Family volume: $90.1M.
Price history
22¢ current
+17¢Orderbook snapshot
21 / 22¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 16, 2026
Identifier
0x7382a5e4…6872
Event family
Eurovision Winner 2026.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$90.1M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Greece 21¢
Current share
4%
Greece
polymarket · 0x7382a5e41b0fec7ba5fd4d62191fc1cf4504d3768970c46d4c9185615c416872
Austria
polymarket · 0x3dbf1d213f9048353b073e8b02585b1d378b88cd05599abd23b00709120ad1f7
Azerbaijan
polymarket · 0x3cc62b3ec93e53e0766cecb28f57f55acb9ca73ffdfa0e4b0a1b914aebb30046
Montenegro
polymarket · 0x5e9392d31f3156e5855557ea36a72932a0cfc4a6855d69c34c4a174278434fc8
Armenia
polymarket · 0x2b1a5aa2f2bad83ac7efacfa77328930a010b3eb6208313767b591bb3757bea1
Albania
polymarket · 0x1ba55cf8a3b8ffa3a8646a68c13e345ed1f5e3a33381a823ad132a4920054a82
Estonia
polymarket · 0xe39dd4dda2144c32921db11ee31127555dcf7dbabbf4a3b65f2413cf601f3908
Georgia
polymarket · 0x295d35d1c69380d0938903dc7f70cf035c0f1283bccb502d651be8a1c1e1d390
San Marino
polymarket · 0xa2aa548967ab1c300887749c7313386015167eb3419109009ff9dbeaa3dd35e0
Portugal
polymarket · 0x4d5f5e9772a2f2aebc236987a1b29290f0394ab414d53661d41d23b3cc111596
Latvia
polymarket · 0x611ac8b703b5291cb8798560e6db1edf9c5eb3038b138d1885d4f708380d4b52
Poland
polymarket · 0xe5c26c71732b00f7e967903079ab24166a4fa2be62012a8ce4393e79b26cdaa7
Switzerland
polymarket · 0x9a7bd9d29ac01f579c0c6c8eb7b2add40f82ba8000c783eccf08fd4b565442fa
Serbia
polymarket · 0x6e235eb1b3be07337a2a424d5e616e8759263f5d078c99604f177da7276d92a2
Lithuania
polymarket · 0xfd2ad2eb408df974df56ae9347baa13d7c156b3875e5c4556adbe2d19b2e4e86
Belgium
polymarket · 0xebea087687d29abcfc7ff807e68790c32b8aca18ff33d196ece0f54282b306b4
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.364
Observability
medium
Event type
cultural
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 22% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.