Who will win Eurovision 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 63% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
63%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
146 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Arizona be the 2026 NL West Division Winner: Arizona
Will Arizona be the 2026 NL West Division Winner: Arizona
KXMLBNLWEST-26-AZ
Cluster 2
Will Los Angeles D be the 2026 NL West Division Winner: Los Angeles D
Will Los Angeles D be the 2026 NL West Division Winner: Los Angeles D
KXMLBNLWEST-26-LAD
Cluster 3
Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
What moved the line
- Aug 8Delcy Rodríguez↓4pp93→89¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Delcy Rodríguez↑3pp90→93¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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