June Meeting · Fed rate cut by
June Meeting is priced at 2¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 5 inside Fed rate cut by...?.
Price history
2¢ current
−8¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
June Meeting
Rank
#5 of 5
Leader
December Meeting 28¢
Range
2¢-28¢
Family volume
$632K
Identifier
0x4d162a40...cfa4
May 24, 2026, 6:04 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$14K
Family rank
#5 of 5
5 outcomes · Fed rate cut by...?
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
Family volume
$632K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
Identifier
0x4d162a40…cfa4
Event family
Fed rate cut by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$632K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
December Meeting 28¢
Current share
47%
December Meeting
polymarket · 0xc60022fe066abd6f96c375adb09f38d92c4931f09c10b805354581b4e5465e93
October Meeting
polymarket · 0x4092815fea8f91e60586882d45fa2f61bfca8a36d595f47fdea9eec5d2893025
September Meeting
polymarket · 0xb4022c0b2718eca7ad27195f2d48f06527fa000269d188e1d3001ff8bbc16956
July Meeting
polymarket · 0x02507350fc2b81c3af36c659a805adbda9b0a81e63a27b29cb273cdd7dbc072e
June Meeting
polymarket · 0x4d162a40c3e3f458b0e0017485d7f9e6ead0cdd0573e38b26e0d5420525ccfa4
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.