Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 8¢ spread despite modest $18.8k open interest, suggesting thin order books and potential execution challenges. The 56¢ price implies roughly even odds for a rate cut by September 2026, though the asymmetric implied yields (492% for Yes vs. 797% for No) indicate the market is pricing in significant tail risk, particularly for the No outcome. With 58 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a relatively stagnant market where the 56¢ price has held flat over the past week, making it difficult to assess whether current pricing reflects genuine equilibrium or simply reflects the lack of recent trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade