Norway to win World Cup Group I
Norway is priced at 24¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 23¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside World Cup Group I Winner.
Price history
24¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Norway
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
France 66¢
Range
1¢-66¢
Family volume
$300K
Identifier
0x9da323e8...3b90
Jun 8, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
23¢
Ask
24¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$663
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · World Cup Group I Winner
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
Family volume
$300K
Orderbook snapshot
23 / 24¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
Identifier
0x9da323e8…3b90
Event family
World Cup Group I Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$300K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
France 66¢
Current share
16%
France
polymarket · 0x4ae4a0aecfc6479374c5a9a355f0f0cba2c0680dff010b48a2c8b380423efd05
Norway
polymarket · 0x9da323e862ca9e583ae67a5130c8c79960cf173e7d76165cefd4ecd7f9333b90
Senegal
polymarket · 0x0174a32ce50b11c793acc6a643e1d583c99fa52016a319eab4052f9a59f4eb18
Iraq
polymarket · 0x95631f2ff3207bc553eae1632c54eccdecdc38554e0b3f6894e73b7f22f83028
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.