FIFA World Cup Group I Winner
Leader sits at 66% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
France
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Norway
Spread
42pp
contested
24h volume
$23K
liquid
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
19 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
World Cup Group I Winner
Analysis
This represents the probability that France will finish first in Group I of the FIFA World Cup, currently priced at 77% by the leading market contract. France enters as a strong favorite based on their tournament history and squad depth. The probability would move higher if France wins early matches decisively, and lower if they face unexpected defeats or key injuries. The next World Cup match in Group I will provide concrete evidence to test this assessment. Market participants are pricing in France's historical performance and current roster strength, though any group upset would immediately repriced this significantly downward.
- ›France's squad composition and recent tournament performance form the baseline for this 77% assessment
- ›Early-tournament match results in Group I will directly test whether France performs to expectation or underperforms
- ›Injuries to key French players before or during group play would be a material downward catalyst
- ›The volume concentration in the France contract ($1350 24h volume) relative to other Group I outcomes suggests some bilateral disagreement on whether 71¢ (Polymarket price) fairly values France
- ›Historical precedent shows that top-seeded teams in World Cup groups win the group approximately 65-75% of the time, making 77% consistent with France's elite ranking
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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