World Cup Group I Winner
Leader sits at 66% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
France
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Norway
Spread
42pp
contested
24h volume
$19K
liquid
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
20 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
World Cup Group I Winner
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that France will win their World Cup Group I match. At 69%, traders are pricing France as a clear favorite, though not overwhelming, with Norway as the second choice at 22%. The current price likely reflects France's recent performance, squad strength, and tournament history versus group opponents. The main factors supporting France's position are their ranking and recent results; factors that could shift the probability include team roster changes, injuries to key players, or Norway's recent form. The probability will move significantly once matches are played and actual results emerge, with the outcome definitively resolved after Group I matches conclude.
- ›France's current FIFA ranking and head-to-head historical record against Norway and other Group I opponents
- ›Recent injury status or player absences for France's squad, which could materially weaken their competitive position
- ›Norway's recent form in qualification and friendly matches leading into the tournament
- ›The specific match scheduling and venue conditions that could advantage or disadvantage either team
- ›Trading volume concentration—the France contract has 3.5x higher 24-hour volume ($2,836) than the Norway contract, potentially indicating broader market confidence or liquidity effects rather than new information
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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