SimpleFunctions

Ismaïla Sarr · FIFA World Cup: Most Assists

Ismaïla Sarr is priced at 36¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 72¢ ask, 72¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside FIFA World Cup: Most Assists.

Price history

36¢ current

1¢
40¢
May 25, 2026May 25, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to the player who records the most assists through all rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA World Cup rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who completed more passes during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome

Ismaïla Sarr

Rank

#4 of 16

Leader

Rodrigo De Paul 39¢

Range

17¢-39¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

0x21d1268e...0a5d

May 25, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 28m ago

Implied probability

36¢
Latest venue quote
May 25, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 28m ago

Bid

Ask

72¢

Spread

72¢

Reported volume

$5

Family rank

#4 of 16

16 outcomes · FIFA World Cup: Most Assists

Closes

Aug 3, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 72¢

Polymarket
72¢ spread
BidSize
AskSize
72¢10
73¢52
92¢155
93¢6
95¢10
96¢25
97¢3.3K
98¢7

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to the player who records the most assists through all rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA World Cup rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who completed more passes during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Aug 3, 2026

Identifier

0x21d1268e…0a5d

SF Signal
SF Index
465.33
Regime
neutral

Event family

FIFA World Cup: Most Assists.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$2K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Rodrigo De Paul 39¢

Current share

0%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Rodrigo De Paul

polymarket · 0xd4398776f1aeaf0f2777772a0b3c10de9b6128d1c97715be0738cb7ad1e9372b

39¢
$18$0

Kevin De Bruyne

polymarket · 0xc9a2d79e6e68e3c71bb19d7ca43bfed7745a01ba5e5293d11ee7cbb66235fd2c

37¢
$35$0

Florian Wirtz

polymarket · 0xa8c1e05e2577a7fadcec029684b475284989b778fd9c5fcc18ea5f7ea8a40ab8

37¢
$7$0

Eldor Shomurodov

polymarket · 0x854ccafa223fa2fc84e8415d7fbe577219d26c4d3c8acbc0d5fe375d619e27c2

36¢
$27$0

Hakan Çalhanoğlu

polymarket · 0xfb4bdd6054941d22641864bc39fa8531093e5a336687594d2547629670b44712

36¢
$6$0

Ismaïla Sarr

polymarket · 0x21d1268e9a749236ccccddc8504c7a623874260b01532913ba0071fc4b930a5d

36¢
$5$0

Liberato Cacace

polymarket · 0x013197e476509c978f1f20a241b581cd7891d281285d4edf4aefebf77f04e3e4

36¢
$5$0

Cédric Bakambu

polymarket · 0x0f1014bf857d302f504e24631841af5f3447fbe203ef7c89c78e01b032d49279

36¢
$5$0

Gonzalo Plata

polymarket · 0x1005a6a3c4bc556307ad4c9179195693489f61243dbd0be8f57e1bc9b07b7392

36¢
$5$0

Adam Hložek

polymarket · 0x23911d660befb6b6217cd11e5930533ecefd49a691935dae56d978aa0b0c82b9

36¢
$5$0

Mehdi Taremi

polymarket · 0x2a721db80e89cb5aac99a15fbc0bba5e47e29552f3760f91edbb8d244d343263

36¢
$5$0

Bukayo Saka

polymarket · 0x64c073a3af2b1db584c3b2f95c9dc8cd9e2d9cf08f1acfe4a0716c4889a26998

26¢
$108$0

Michael Olise

polymarket · 0x82d457585e0d9adb37ed33cfcc630a896a962077c098ddaf40f2a5a89cdb5c68

25¢
$337$0

Lamine Yamal

polymarket · 0x581f25d832bf07ce93cd536b8e80c145d65caa386d52717833dcc7f0a070873d

25¢
$165$0

Xavi Simons

polymarket · 0x155f79050b6b2b71e47c9be33b45f08c93eca73431a8e8e628dab894cadc5533

25¢
$10$0

Bruno Fernandes

polymarket · 0xa6c0e100b2270447d56d3d50b580adc65ca5731e8a26098cddbac1334723c124

17¢
$918$41

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

930.7%

IY (No)

294.5%

Adj IY

465%

CRI

2

Overround

14.9%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

930.7%
294.5%
Adj IY
465%
2
Overround
14.9%

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Conceptmethodology

New Market Price Formation: The First 24 Hours of a Listed Contract

When a binary contract first lists, the price moves through four phases: maker seeding, discovery flow, tentative consensus, stable pricing. Trading rules and the maker opportunity in phases 1 and 2.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Opinionessay

Prediction market liquidity: why depth matters more than volume for serious traders

Why orderbook depth matters more than volume for prediction market traders. Real Kalshi examples, liquidity scoring framework, and how to avoid slippage.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.