What is the current probability for "Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026. 57 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4663.2% and 86.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PolymarketJun 30, 202657 days left

Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 12¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 9¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 6¢ spread.

Open on Polymarket JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

12¢

$40K volume

$1K liquidity

100% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$40K

Best sibling

—

Ticker

0x1d36cf80…3b96

Price history

12¢ current

+6¢

Apr 8, 2026May 2, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

9 / 15¢

Polymarket

6¢ spread

BidSize

9¢194

3¢5

3¢10

2¢529

2¢100

2¢316

2¢100

0¢13K

AskSize

15¢405

23¢14

23¢12

23¢16

23¢65

63¢391

74¢92

74¢50

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Glencore (GLEN.L) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Rio Tinto (RIO.L) , or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Glencore or Rio Tinto will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Glencore or Rio Tinto; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x1d36cf80…3b96

Event family

This market.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$40K

Outcomes

Highest price