Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 18 contracts. Kalshi at 28%, Polymarket at 8% — a 20pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
28%
16 contracts
Polymarket
8%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
20pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
18 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
57 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 28¢ · Polymarket 8¢ · 20pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (8¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (28¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
9 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before” vs “Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Apr 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27APR01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before May 1, 2027?: Before May 1, 2027
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAY01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Mar 1, 2027?: Before Mar 1, 2027
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAR01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26AUG01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26SEP01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Feb 1, 2027?: Before Feb 1, 2027
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27FEB01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27JAN01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26DEC01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01
Cluster 2
Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship
Cluster 3
Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030
Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?: Before 2030
KXSPACEXMARS-30
Cluster 4
Will a new main Fast & Furious film be officially announced in 2026
Will a new main Fast & Furious film be officially announced in 2026?: Before 2027
KXFASTANDFURIOUSRELEASE-27
Cluster 5
Will Elon Musk or Tesla or SpaceX take a stake in Ryanair before Jan 1, 2027
Will Elon Musk or Tesla or SpaceX take a stake in Ryanair before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes
KXCOMPANYSTAKERYANAIR-27JAN01
Cluster 6
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
0xc49487…ae0f
Cluster 7
Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30
Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?
0x1d36cf…3b96
Cluster 8
Will Poland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026
Will Poland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?: Poland
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-26-POL
Cluster 9
Will Finland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026
Will Finland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026?: Finland
KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-26-FIN
What moved the line
- Apr 28Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?↑17pp5→22¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?↓14pp22→8¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?↑10pp5→15¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?↓10pp15→5¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27Before 2030↑3pp59→62¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.