Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
This contract is priced at 89¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 88¢ bid, 90¢ ask, 2¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
3
Family volume
$192K
Best sibling
June 30, 2026 10¢
Ticker
0x46c81594…3f35
Market snapshot
December 31, 2026 in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?. The displayed quote is 89¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $214. In the GPT-6 released by…? family, this outcome ranks #1 of 3 by current quote across 3 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 4:23 AM UTC.
Outcome
December 31, 2026
Family rank
#1 of 3
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
89¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$214
Family context
3 outcomes · GPT-6 released by…?
Quote range
10¢-89¢
Family leader
December 31, 2026 89¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 4:23 AM UTC · 1m ago
Venue identifier: 0x46c8159431f59839061bb4abe8795ff8c0ebf6b612451e303ebe7f34697f3f35. Family volume: $192K.
Price history
89¢ current
+6¢Orderbook snapshot
88 / 90¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x46c81594…3f35
Event family
GPT-6 released by….
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$192K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
December 31, 2026 89¢
Current share
20%
December 31, 2026
polymarket · 0x46c8159431f59839061bb4abe8795ff8c0ebf6b612451e303ebe7f34697f3f35
June 30, 2026
polymarket · 0xecdf42488da999b04ab160c1ad7997249d4ef0facb283229455a9e9e44bf8210
September 30, 2026
polymarket · 0xf82f84686ee2a25f5690430461413c4dc5a39dcea922a7c5f47d9d29418fbdb6
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
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