Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?

The 44¢ price reflects meaningful skepticism about GPT-6's public release within 72 days, despite OpenAI's historical cadence of major model releases roughly annually. The market has rallied 34% over seven days with elevated realized volatility of 251%, suggesting recent positive sentiment shifts (possibly from company announcements or leaked timelines), though the tight 1¢ spread and modest $1.68M daily volume indicate relatively thin liquidity for a binary event this close to expiration. The asymmetric implied yields (569% for Yes vs. 448% for No) and high cliff risk index signal this is pricing as a binary catalyst event rather than a gradual probability shift.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade