Greta Thunberg arrested by December 31?

Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Greta Thunberg arrested by December 31?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.

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51¢
Bid/Ask 6/96¢·Spread 90¢·Vol $0·OI $7.313·Closes Jun 30, 2026·67d remaining
0x02c86bce323184bc35820f0de7f5c4ec4002243d4d753b5ebe8469fdd690d3a0
7-day price36 snapshots · 1 regime
54¢52¢ current
Apr 2248¢Apr 23

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 499.4%
IY (No) 586.1%
Adj IY 293%
CRI 1
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)499.4%
IY (No)586.1%
Adj IY293%
CRI1

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
90¢
Computed
4/23/2026, 12:55:07 PM
Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 12:53:12 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x02c86bce323184bc35820f0de7f5c4ec4002243d4d753b5ebe8469fdd690d3a0 yes 100

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