Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?
This contract is priced at 12¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 11¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
1
Family volume
$45K
Best sibling
—
Ticker
0x0c61adaf…c50f
Market snapshot
June 30, 2026 in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?. The displayed quote is 12¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $1K. It is currently represented as a standalone prediction-market contract. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC.
Outcome
June 30, 2026
Family rank
—
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
12¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Close time not listed
24h volume
$1K
Family context
Standalone contract
Quote range
—
Family leader
—
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 9m ago
Venue identifier: 0x0c61adaf2d0c903081573c305892a84c12701330258d912252eef226faa5c50f. Family volume: $45K.
Price history
12¢ current
−2¢Orderbook snapshot
11 / 12¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public. Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
—
Identifier
0x0c61adaf…c50f
Event family
Grok 5 released by.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$45K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
June 30, 2026 12¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 12% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.