SimpleFunctions
PolymarketDec 31, 2026236 days left

Will between 19 and 21 albums be ranked #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026?

This contract is priced at 46¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 91¢ ask, 90¢ spread.

Implied probability

46¢
$174 volume
$17 liquidity
3% of event volume

Event outcomes

5

Family volume

$5K

Best sibling

22–24 45¢

Ticker

0xb27796a2…fab7

Market snapshot

19–21 in market context.

This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will between 19 and 21 albums be ranked #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026?. The displayed quote is 46¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $174. In the How many albums will reach Billboard #1 in 2026? family, this outcome ranks #1 of 5 by current quote across 5 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC.

Outcome

19–21

Family rank

#1 of 5

Venue

Polymarket

Current quote

46¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Dec 31, 2026

Reported volume

$174

Family context

5 outcomes · How many albums will reach Billboard #1 in 2026?

Quote range

11¢-46¢

Family leader

19–21 46¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC · 14m ago

Venue identifier: 0xb27796a202576774c5e6217d84b853a7e48a35b63b4f6c9170c86e51d17cfab7. Family volume: $5K.

Price history

46¢ current

+20¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 8, 2026May 9, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

1 / 91¢

Polymarket
90¢ spread
BidSize
100¢182
100¢10
0¢6.8K
0¢300
0¢100
AskSize
91¢10
91¢41
98¢57
98¢41
98¢5
98¢40
100¢25

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of albums that are ranked number 1 on any official weekly Billboard 200 albums chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Each specific album may only count once, regardless of the number times it reaches the number 1 spot. Different editions of the same album will be considered to be different specific albums if they contain different tracklists. Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard 200 album chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard 200 album chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. All officially published Billboard 200 Albums charts will be treated as final. Revisions made after the release of a Billboard 200 album chart will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official weekly Billboard 200 albums chart, published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/ and through other official Billboard channels; however, a consensus of credible reporting on albums that reached number 1 on the Billboard 200 within this market's timeframe may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

0xb27796a2…fab7

Event family

How many albums will reach Billboard #1 in 2026.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$5K

Outcomes

5

Highest price

19–21 46¢

Current share

3%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

181.7%
131.9%
Adj IY
0%
1
RV
621%
VR
4.60
IAR
2.9/h
Overround
0.7%
LAS
2.09

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Conceptmethodology

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

Opinionanalysis

Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens

Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.

Conceptmethodology

Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome

When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Learnanalysis

Yield Curve (Prediction Markets)

A prediction-market yield curve plots implied yield against τ-days across all sibling contracts in an event family. Borrowed from bond desks, enabled by cycle clustering.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index