4 (100 bps) · How many Fed rate cuts in 2026
4 (100 bps) is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 13 inside How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?.
Price history
1¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Outcome
4 (100 bps)
Rank
#5 of 13
Leader
0 (0 bps) 66¢
Range
0¢-66¢
Family volume
$30.0M
Identifier
0xaece8d60...c7c4
May 27, 2026, 2:42 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$6K
Family rank
#5 of 13
13 outcomes · How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$30.0M
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xaece8d60…c7c4
Event family
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$30.0M
Outcomes
13
Highest price
0 (0 bps) 66¢
Current share
4%
0 (0 bps)
polymarket · 0xd4e77ba6f29fc093509d24f508631abd445ecf506bbdc9c4c80e60256a318527
1 (25 bps)
polymarket · 0x5e082f0b57f47a29044aa35b4c5658393122e659d5feae521c06b57cdd7f905c
2 (50 bps)
polymarket · 0xe0d9f508a249e0070db06eb7d1e1fb17eb23c963f6fb722c4c3f81e23240c1cd
3 (75 bps)
polymarket · 0x8d4966e84ae80f24b2e14643fdd45364e354229e11e2c17903b4b1763cfbe67c
5 (125 bps)
polymarket · 0x7ee722a07e0f84405f1267bc1c84eb95bd6348454453abf445618e778af8fd18
4 (100 bps)
polymarket · 0xaece8d6062d3e3eb9845b32441a4ab06eb2ef332c0228bc6a36add450647c7c4
10 (250 bps)
polymarket · 0x757c144993b3cb831e04c42bfcff8c18864c7da4f4688a5939d2f62e031cbc87
11 (275 bps)
polymarket · 0x1adf074e048fa613f4ddbc0766088748a48d120a3a713b0183e219032a411ae3
9 (225 bps)
polymarket · 0x4ec6fcb43fe1a32163c7da09d54a99ab9bf6abdc6fd49939d7ad67d696a3248b
6 (150 bps)
polymarket · 0x4914bfdd892a48c341b5e0f41ec10475a815f2277273110b16f95e21084bfe75
12+ (300+ bps)
polymarket · 0xffa0accb74987c0dc33a70eb3780c1da160206bcfb3ef5d16c1667bc5c459c78
8 (200 bps)
polymarket · 0xfe28cb84a714b1a964290d7fd2587e71d57e905678c8ab64488449b24be78e52
7 (175 bps)
polymarket · 0x2368d2604c9c2b95bc98c51bd50c66e5351caebf05b9fe79d3398c387fe29a89
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.442
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.