SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026
180-199 is priced at 9¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 7 inside How many SpaceX launches in 2026?.
Price history
9¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Outcome
180-199
Rank
#3 of 7
Leader
140-159 50¢
Range
1¢-50¢
Family volume
$303K
Identifier
0x48b60dee...9ef4
Jun 8, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$82
Family rank
#3 of 7
7 outcomes · How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$303K
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x48b60dee…9ef4
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 24¢, -15¢ versus this page.
Event family
How many SpaceX launches in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$303K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
140-159 50¢
Current share
19%
140-159
polymarket · 0xdf246fb418f8f1ab06eab9b1c0e2c6e9bef099f18b8fb74c3eceffbd7410413d
160-179
polymarket · 0x9ca98e91ad1810e7375d0fad4c01dab0ba7001fd9e2391b25569dc0207f508ab
180-199
polymarket · 0x48b60dee314c783580a450b88f35e1ca500fd6a7410f1be6a724615f4f389ef4
200 or more
polymarket · 0xec9e92f27a98bc29028aec518993330e7920ac35f40fdea3c51e11d6ddc6acde
120-139
polymarket · 0x29bb6476b63fda2d1324cfb123652c018057e1ba1565e07482e945a24b334816
<100
polymarket · 0xf89ba0a4af6cf971d1d6eb1b0fca2194ace4dfb3e492821e16a4ed49a365a5a1
100-119
polymarket · 0x4f5db8fe5ebb891aee12d90d8ed36d43f900c5179e8574867853e8c9bb0c7914
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
How to Scan Prediction Market Orderbooks: Spread, Depth, and Liquidity Analysis
Practical guide to analyzing orderbook data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Learn spread, depth, liquidity scoring, and executable edge calculation.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 9% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.