SimpleFunctions
PolymarketJun 30, 202652 days left

Will Tesla deliver between 325000 and 350000 vehicles in Q2 2026

This contract is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 4¢ spread.

Implied probability

3¢
$3K volume
$2K liquidity
8% of event volume

Event outcomes

9

Family volume

$41K

Best sibling

400k–425k 16¢

Ticker

0x87f09334…9ad9

Market snapshot

325k–350k in market context.

This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Tesla deliver between 325000 and 350000 vehicles in Q2 2026. The displayed quote is 3¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $3K. In the How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026? family, this outcome ranks #8 of 9 by current quote across 9 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 11:23 AM UTC.

Outcome

325k–350k

Family rank

#8 of 9

Venue

Polymarket

Current quote

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Jun 30, 2026

Reported volume

$3K

Family context

9 outcomes · How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?

Quote range

1¢-37¢

Family leader

475k+ 37¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 11:23 AM UTC · 3m ago

Venue identifier: 0x87f093341ab2438f8e1b7ea9e4a18e0aae873ebfb838cc55039e500b13109ad9. Family volume: $41K.

Price history

3¢ current

+2¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 27, 2026May 8, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

1 / 5¢

Polymarket
4¢ spread
BidSize
100¢68
100¢14
0¢22K
0¢765
0¢100
0¢7
AskSize
5¢137
5¢136
43¢147
43¢180
43¢20
44¢30
44¢50
46¢200

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x87f09334…9ad9

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

22904.7%

IY (No)

21.9%

Adj IY

0%

CRI

32

Overround

0.3%

LAS

1.33

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

22904.7%
21.9%
Adj IY
0%
32
Overround
0.3%
LAS
1.33

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