How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?
Leader sits at 37% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
475k+
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
375k–400k
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$968
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?: 475k+
0x492643…1b4b
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?: 425k–450k
0x3be2b0…b0da
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?: <300k
0x7a2b0a…9b4a
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?: 400k–425k
0xb98ca5…d293
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?: 450k–475k
0x2925e3…818c
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?: 350k–375k
0x178788…e94b
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?: 375k–400k
0x13150b…2df4
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?: 325k–350k
0x87f093…9ad9
Analysis
This probability reflects the current market estimate that Tesla will deliver between 375,000 and 400,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2026. At 27%, this outcome ranks among the leading scenarios but indicates meaningful uncertainty about Tesla's Q2 performance. The current level appears driven by baseline production capacity expectations balanced against potential macroeconomic headwinds and competition in key markets. Tesla typically reports quarterly delivery figures in early October, making Q2 results available by the first week of July 2026. The main factors pushing this probability higher would be strong early-quarter demand signals and maintained production rates, while demand weakness, supply chain disruptions, or competitive pressure could lower it. Market participants are pricing in a relatively wide distribution across multiple delivery bands, suggesting genuine uncertainty about where Tesla will land within its typical quarterly range.
- ›Tesla's Q1 2026 delivery total and production rate trends heading into Q2, as these establish the baseline capacity
- ›Macroeconomic indicators and EV demand signals through May-June 2026, particularly in the US and China markets
- ›Announced price adjustments, new model availability, or capacity expansions that become public before Q2 closes
- ›Competitive deliveries and market share dynamics from other manufacturers in Q2 2026
- ›The distribution of probabilities across all six outcome contracts, which shows how much uncertainty remains relative to this 375k-400k band
What moved the line
- May 3<300k↓30pp32→2¢ · Polymarket
- May 6<300k↑15pp2→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 2475k+↑7pp18→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 3350k–375k↑7pp5→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 2450k–475k↓7pp25→18¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.