3 · How many weeks will ICEMAN be No.1 on the Billboard 200
3 is priced at 45¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 42¢ bid, 47¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside How many weeks will ICEMAN be No.1 on the Billboard 200?.
Price history
45¢ current
+24¢Contract brief
Drake's new album "ICEMAN" is expected to release in 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of weeks in a row "ICEMAN" holds the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 albums chart. If Drake does not release a new album by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the relevant album does not hold the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 albums chart for the first week that would record its release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/).
Outcome
3
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
3 46¢
Range
0¢-46¢
Family volume
$22K
Identifier
0x78e2751b...95bf
May 26, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
42¢
Ask
47¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$113
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · How many weeks will ICEMAN be No.1 on the Billboard 200?
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Family volume
$22K
Orderbook snapshot
42 / 47¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
Drake's new album "ICEMAN" is expected to release in 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of weeks in a row "ICEMAN" holds the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 albums chart. If Drake does not release a new album by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the relevant album does not hold the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 albums chart for the first week that would record its release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Identifier
0x78e2751b…95bf
Event family
How many weeks will ICEMAN be No.1 on the Billboard 200.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$22K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
3 46¢
Current share
15%
3
polymarket · 0x78e2751b90f4a3e878242df8c26f7243782c5b7b01e3006c92c17874635b95bf
4+
polymarket · 0x04e6c15f41c52efc6b9c003f96f23437b6ad5f0ca93407d467b49383cd20d2b9
1
polymarket · 0x980cd972572ab0fd9d9ec1836da082ed98be2cb6c69ec54c7402561effbdaae6
2
polymarket · 0xbdd246a0b2283a963b946a1272db382e508ada8bb8d454b7839006d587a7d48a
0
polymarket · 0xb44a765f56ee77c94114582c89654a9080155696d5038aec950d9713956d532b
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 45% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.