SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·4 source contracts·Polymarket 4·refreshed just now·Closes Jul 31, 2026 · 63d

How many weeks will ICEMAN be No.1 on the Billboard 200?

Bracket1

Leader sits at 68% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

68%

4+

runner-up 15¢leader 68¢

Outcomes

4

winner-take-all

Runner-up

15¢

3

Spread

53pp

dominant leader

24h volume

$990

thin orderbook

Closes

Jul 31, 2026

63 days

Venue

Polymarket

4 bound

Read answer

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday4+: 60% (12 days, 12 points)4+: 60% on 2026-05-283: 24% (12 days, 12 points)3: 24% on 2026-05-282: 5% (12 days, 12 points)2: 5% on 2026-05-28
4+60¢324¢25¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 12d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • May 27319pp3920¢ · Polymarket
  • May 214+17pp4158¢ · Polymarket
  • May 274+17pp5067¢ · Polymarket
  • May 22310pp2434¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2629pp145¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.