4+ · How many weeks will ICEMAN be No.1 on the Billboard 200
4+ is priced at 54¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 46¢ bid, 67¢ ask, 21¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside How many weeks will ICEMAN be No.1 on the Billboard 200?.
Price history
54¢ current
+22¢Contract brief
Drake's new album "ICEMAN" is expected to release in 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of weeks in a row "ICEMAN" holds the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 albums chart. If Drake does not release a new album by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the relevant album does not hold the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 albums chart for the first week that would record its release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/).
Outcome
4+
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
4+ 54¢
Range
0¢-54¢
Family volume
$25K
Identifier
0x04e6c15f...d2b9
May 28, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
46¢
Ask
67¢
Spread
21¢
24h volume
$80
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · How many weeks will ICEMAN be No.1 on the Billboard 200?
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Family volume
$25K
Orderbook snapshot
46 / 67¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
Drake's new album "ICEMAN" is expected to release in 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of weeks in a row "ICEMAN" holds the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 albums chart. If Drake does not release a new album by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the relevant album does not hold the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 albums chart for the first week that would record its release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Identifier
0x04e6c15f…d2b9
Event family
How many weeks will ICEMAN be No.1 on the Billboard 200.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$25K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
4+ 54¢
Current share
22%
4+
polymarket · 0x04e6c15f41c52efc6b9c003f96f23437b6ad5f0ca93407d467b49383cd20d2b9
3
polymarket · 0x78e2751b90f4a3e878242df8c26f7243782c5b7b01e3006c92c17874635b95bf
2
polymarket · 0xbdd246a0b2283a963b946a1272db382e508ada8bb8d454b7839006d587a7d48a
1
polymarket · 0x980cd972572ab0fd9d9ec1836da082ed98be2cb6c69ec54c7402561effbdaae6
0
polymarket · 0xb44a765f56ee77c94114582c89654a9080155696d5038aec950d9713956d532b
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.