OpenAI IPO before 2027?

The 14-cent cross-venue gap between Polymarket (38¢) and Kalshi (52¢) represents a notable arbitrage opportunity, with Polymarket pricing in a significantly lower 38% IPO probability despite 258 days remaining until expiry. The extreme realized volatility of 403% and asymmetric implied yields (231% for Yes vs. 87% for No) suggest high uncertainty, though the recent 8-cent price decline over seven days and low 24-hour volume of $279 indicate thin liquidity that may be exacerbating the venue discrepancy. With an info arrival rate of 0.9 per hour and neutral regime conditions, this market appears to be repricing downward on recent developments, making the Kalshi price potentially more reflective of fundamental expectations.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

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