Ramp IPO before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Ramp IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 16¢ price implies only a 16% probability of Ramp going public by end-2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 743% annualized return, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the ~258 days to expiry.
Analysis
The 16¢ price implies only a 16% probability of Ramp going public by end-2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 743% annualized return, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the ~258 days to expiry. A notable 3¢ cross-venue gap exists with Kalshi (13¢), indicating potential arbitrage opportunity, though the thin $94 daily volume and elevated realized volatility of 345% warrant caution on execution. The cliff risk index of 5 and neutral regime score suggest the market lacks strong directional conviction, making this a high-risk/high-reward speculation dependent on near-term IPO announcements.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x9dd67d7d61b5d2e04f6458d63bd169894ef918dc34e6cdb778707d7e5d47a38f yes 100